GRADED STAKES RECAP: PREAKNESS (2010.05.15)
We are reviewing the morning line makers' performance following each graded stakes race.
Pimlico presented an twelve-horse stakes race, the Grade 1 Preakness, on Saturday. The twelve runners competed in the $1,000,000 guaranteed purse which was for three year olds travelling one mile and three-sixteenths on the dirt course. Frank Carulli had the unenviable task of assign the morning line odds to one of the largest parimutel handled events in North America. The complications continue with how quickly the odds must be generated in time for publication.
Frank did a great job in correctly predicting the first four favorites for the Preakness. Additionally, he crorrectly tabbed the post time longest shot. Frank overestimated the play that Caracortado would gain and underestimated that for Yawanna Twist.
HORSE NAME1 MLO PRO-RATED2 PTO MLO RANK3 MLO RANK4 AIKENTITE 20-1 19.13-1 30.00-1 MLO-T8 PTO-11 CARACORTADO 10-1 9.54-1 18.80-1 MLO-T4 PTO-8 DUBLIN 10-1 9.54-1 9.80-1 MLO-T4 PTO-4 FIRST DUDE 20-1 19.13-1 23.80-1 MLO-T8 PTO-10 JACKSON BEND 12-1 11.46-1 11.60-1 MLO-T6 PTO-5 LOOKIN AT LUCKY 3-1 2.83-1 2.40-1 MLO-2 PTO-2 NORTHERN GIANT 30-1 28.72-1 31.20-1 MLO-T11 PTO-12 PADDY O'PRADO 9-2 4.27-1 7.50-1 MLO-3 PTO-3 PLEASANT PRINCE 20-1 19.13-1 23.50-1 MLO-T8 PTO-9 SCHOOLYARD DREAMS 15-1 14.34-1 15.40-1 MLO-7 PTO-6 SUPER SAVER 5-2 2.36-1 1.90-1 MLO-1 PTO-1 YAWANNA TWIST 30-1 28.72-1 16.60-1 MLO-T11 PTO-7
1. In our stakes race recaps, the horses will be listed in alphabetical order. The stakes winner's name will be underlined in this column.
2. Pro-rated morning line odds are the mathematically adjusted morning line adjusted to reflect scratched runners. The pro-rated morning line odds will total to 100% plus the pari-mutuel takeout percentage and one percentage point for each runner (the de facto industry standard). In the case either no scratches or no odds total imbalances, this column will be the MLO in decimal form. My source for each track's takeout percentage is Horseplayers Association of North America.
3. In the case of ties among rank of morning line odds, the rank notation will be MLO-T# where # will represent the ranked position.
4. In the case of ties among rank of post time odds, the rank notation will be PTO-T# where # will represent the ranked position.
(2010.10.20 -- sps)