GRADED STAKES RECAP: KENTUCKY DERBY (2010.05.01)
We are reviewing the morning line makers' performance following each graded stakes race.
Fair Grounds presented an thirteen-horse stakes race, the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, on Saturday. The twenty runners competed in the $2,000,000 guaranteed purse which was for three year olds travelling one mile and an quarter on the dirt course. Mike Battaglia had the unenviable task of assign the morning line odds to the largest North American field size of the year with runners trying a new distance. The complications continue with the track condition becoming wet after the line was made. This race arguably has more uninformed money in the parimutuel pools than any other event during the year. Battaglia correctly idientified the post time favorite, LOOKIN AT LUCKY. For the most part, he had horses clustered in the right ranges. One notable exception was the winner, SUPER SAVER, who was anticipated to go off as the ninth choice but went to post as the second choice amongst the betting public.
The most glaring error in this line was not predicting the strong parity in the race. The post time odds of the 2010 Kentucky Derby had the price for a favorite in history. The longshots were all evenly bet thus leaving only one horse over 30-to-1 odds. Battaglia's line had two runners under 6-to-1 and four over 30-to-1. As a result of over-estimating the bookends, the line failed to predict prices well. To summarize, this year's event made making the subsequent morning lines for the Kentucky Derby even more of an unenviable task.
HORSE NAME1 MLO PRO-RATED2 PTO MLO RANK3 MLO RANK4 AMERICAN LION 30-1 29.72-1 23.20-1 MLO-T13 PTO-14 AWESOME ACT 10-1 9.60-1 11.60-1 MLO-T3 PTO-5 BACKTALK 50-1 49.54-1 23.10-1 MLO-T17 PTO-13 CONVEYANCE 12-1 11.88-1 27.00-1 MLO-T6 PTO-17 DEAN'S KITTEN 50-1 49.54-1 25.70-1 MLO-T17 PTO-16 DEVIL MAY CARE 10-1 9.90-1 10.90-1 MLO-T3 PTO-4 DISCREETLY MINE 30-1 29.72-1 31.60-1 MLO-T13 PTO-20 DUBLIN 12-1 11.88-1 20.00-1 MLO-T6 PTO-17 HOMEBOYKRIS 50-1 49.54-1 27.00-1 MLO-T17 PTO-18 ICE BOX 10-1 9.90-1 11.70-1 MLO-T3 PTO-6 JACKSON BEND 15-1 14.86-1 23.00-1 MLO-T9 PTO-12 LINE OF DAVID 30-1 29.72-1 19.90-1 MLO-T13 PTO-9 LOOKIN AT LUCKY 3-1 2.96-1 6.30-1 MLO-1 PTO-1 MAKE MUSIC FOR ME 50-1 49.54-1 30.00-1 MLO-T17 PTO-19 MISSION IMPAZIBLE 20-1 19.81-1 16.70-1 MLO-T11 PTO-8 NOBLE'S PROMISE 12-1 11.88-1 24.90-1 MLO-T6 PTO-15 PADDY O'PRADO 20-1 19.81-1 12.30-1 MLO-T11 PTO-7 SIDNEY'S CANDY 5-1 4.95-1 9.50-1 MLO-2 PTO-3 STATELY VICTOR 30-1 29.72-1 20.20-1 MLO-T13 PTO-11 SUPER SAVER 15-1 14.86-1 8.00-1 MLO-T9 PTO-2
1. In our stakes race recaps, the horses will be listed in alphabetical order. The stakes winner's name will be underlined in this column.
2. Pro-rated morning line odds are the mathematically adjusted morning line adjusted to reflect scratched runners. The pro-rated morning line odds will total to 100% plus the pari-mutuel takeout percentage and one percentage point for each runner (the de facto industry standard). In the case either no scratches or no odds total imbalances, this column will be the MLO in decimal form. My source for each track's takeout percentage is Horseplayers Association of North America.
3. In the case of ties among rank of morning line odds, the rank notation will be MLO-T# where # will represent the ranked position.
4. In the case of ties among rank of post time odds, the rank notation will be PTO-T# where # will represent the ranked position.
(2010.10.20 -- sps)