GRADED STAKES RECAP: SANTA ANITA OAKS (2010.03.06)
We are reviewing the morning line makers' performance following each graded stakes race.
Santa Anita Park presented a seven-horse stakes race, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks, on Saturday. The seven runners competed in the $250,000 guaranteed purse which was for three year old filliess travelling one and one sixteenth miles on the artificial course. The morning line was a textbook example of what a line should be. It correctly predicted the post time odds in order for all seven runners while essentially nailing the prices on four of the runners and getting very close on the other three. Arguably, this was the best morning line of the year.
HORSE NAME1 MLO PRO-RATED2 PTO MLO RANK3 MLO RANK4 ALL DUE RESPECT 8-1 8.40-1 6.80-1 MLO-T4 PTO-4 BLIND LUCK 1-2 0.57-1 0.50-1 MLO-1 PTO-1 COZI ROSIE 5-1 5.27-1 5.20-1 MLO-2 PTO-2 CRISP 6-1 6.31-1 5.80-1 MLO-3 PTO-3 RIVIERA CHIC 20-1 20.93-1 25.80-1 MLO-6 PTO-6 WARREN'S JITTERBUG 30-1 31.37-1 33.30-1 MLO-7 PTO-7 ZILVA 8-1 8.40-1 21.50-1 MLO-T4 PTO-5
1. In our stakes race recaps, the horses will be listed in alphabetical order. The stakes winner's name will be underlined in this column.
2. Pro-rated morning line odds are the mathematically adjusted morning line adjusted to reflect scratched runners. The pro-rated morning line odds will total to 100% plus the pari-mutuel takeout percentage and one percentage point for each runner (the de facto industry standard). In the case either no scratches or no odds total imbalances, this column will be the MLO in decimal form. My source for each track's takeout percentage is Horseplayers Association of North America.
3. In the case of ties among rank of morning line odds, the rank notation will be MLO-T# where # will represent the ranked position.
4. In the case of ties among rank of post time odds, the rank notation will be PTO-T# where # will represent the ranked position.
(2010.10.20 -- sps)