GRADED STAKES RECAP: 2009.12.20
We will review the morning line makers' performance following each graded stakes race. On the 20th, there was only one graded stakes race for thoroughbreds in North America.
Hollywood Park presented a seven-horse stakes race, the Grade I Hollywood Starlet Stakes, on Sunday. The seven runners competed in the $405,250 purse which was for two year old fillies travelling one mile and one sixteenth on the all weather track. The morning line maker adequately identified the post time rank of all but the two public favorites. The morning line favorite, the eventual winner, was the second PT choice. Since 2-to-1 and 5-to-2 are close in percentage value, one does not know if the linemaker was guilty of selecting the winner instead of the post time favorite.
HORSE NAME1 MLO PRO-RATED2 PTO MLO RANK3 MLO RANK4 AMEN HALLELUJAH 4-1 4.17-1 4.00-1 MLO-3 PTO-3 BEAUTICIAN 5-2 2.62-1 1.70-1 MLO-2 PTO-1 BICKERSONS 6-1 6.24-1 10.00-1 MLO-T4 PTO-5 BLIND LUCK 2-1 2.10-1 1.80-1 MLO-1 PTO-2 IT TIZ 10-1 10.38-1 14.40-1 MLO-6 PTO-6 MISS HEATHER LEE 12-1 12.45-1 19.80-1 MLO-7 PTO-7 ROSE CATHERINE 6-1 6.24-1 4.90-1 MLO-T4 PTO-4
1. In our stakes race recaps, the horses will be listed in alphabetical order. The stakes winner's name will be underlined in this column.
2. Pro-rated morning line odds are the mathematically adjusted morning line adjusted to reflect scratched runners. The pro-rated morning line odds will total to 100% plus the pari-mutuel takeout percentage and one percentage point for each runner (the de facto industry standard). In the case either no scratches or no odds total imbalances, this column will be the MLO in decimal form. My source for each track's takeout percentage is Horseplayers Association of North America.
3. In the case of ties among rank of morning line odds, the rank notation will be MLO-T# where # will represent the ranked position.
4. In the case of ties among rank of post time odds, the rank notation will be PTO-T# where # will represent the ranked position.
(2010.10.20 -- sps)