GRADED STAKES RECAP: 2009.12.12
We will review the morning line makers' performance following each graded stakes race. Initially, I thought about analyzing each stakes race, but until I automate the some of the process it will take more time than I am prepared to expend. Saturday offered two graded stakes: the Native Diver Handicap and the Queens County Handicap.
Aqueduct presented a seven-horse stakes race, the Queens County Handicap, on Saturday. The seven runners competed in the $107,500 added purse which was for three year olds and upwards travelling one mile and three sixteenths on the inner dirt track. In addition to correctly identifying the post time favorite, the morning line maker successfully ranked the middle with the fourth and fifth choices being correct.
HORSE NAME1 MLO PRO-RATED2 PTO MLO RANK3 MLO RANK4 HONOUR DEVIL 5-1 4.62-1 4.00-1 MLO-4 PTO-4 MORE THAN A REASON 12-1 11.19-1 21.50-1 MLO-6 PTO-7 NAUGHTY NEW YORKER 15-1 14.00-1 16.20-1 MLO-7 PTO-6 RESEARCHER 5-2 2.28-1 1.70-1 MLO-1 PTO-1 RODMAN 4-1 3.69-1 3.00-1 MLO-3 PTO-2 STORM PLAY 3-1 2.75-1 4.00-1 MLO-2 PTO-3 STUD MUFFIN 8-1 7.44-1 12.20-1 MLO-2 PTO-3
Hollywood Park presented the Native Diver Handicap on Saturday. Five runners competed in the $100,000 guaranteed purse which was for three years olds and upward travelling one mile and one eighth on the all weather track. The morning line maker correctly identified the favorite. The line may have been out of whack due to the anticipation of LAVA MAN's return and subsequent scratch.
HORSE NAME1 MLO PRO-RATED2 PTO MLO RANK3 MLO RANK4 HIGH COURT DRAMa (IRE) 8-1 6.55-1 4.50-1 MLO-5 PTO-4 MAST TRACK 7-2 2.77-1 3.10-1 MLO-2 PTO-3 NEKO BAY 2-1 1.52-1 2.00-1 MLO-1 PTO-1 SQUARE EDDIE 6-1 4.87-1 2.70-1 MLO-4 PTO-2 TRES BORRACHOS 4-1 3.19-1 5.20-1 MLO-3 PTO-5
1. In our stakes race recaps, the horses will be listed in alphabetical order. The stakes winner's name will be underlined in this column.
2. Pro-rated morning line odds are the mathematically adjusted morning line adjusted to reflect scratched runners. The pro-rated morning line odds will total to 100% plus the pari-mutuel takeout percentage and one percentage point for each runner (the de facto industry standard). In the case either no scratches or no odds total imbalances, this column will be the MLO in decimal form. My source for each track's takeout percentage is Horseplayers Association of North America.
3. In the case of ties among rank of morning line odds, the rank notation will be MLO-T# where # will represent the ranked position.
4. In the case of ties among rank of post time odds, the rank notation will be PTO-T# where # will represent the ranked position.
(2010.10.20 -- sps)