STAKES RECAP: 2009.12.04
We will review the morning line makers' performance following each stakes race. Friday gives a good view of one morning line maker as three-quarters of the day's stakes races are from Delta Downs.
Aqueduct presented a five-horse stakes race, the Silent Turn Stakes, for the third day in a row on Friday. The five runners competed in the $65,000 added purse which was for two year old fillies travelling six furlongs on the inner dirt track track. The morning line maker successfully ranked the first three favorites. His estimation of the final pricing my have been hampered by reluctance of line makers to predict post time odds at or near odds on.
HORSE NAME1 MLO PRO-RATED2 PTO MLO RANK3 MLO RANK4 CUFF ME 7-5 1.40-1 0.30-1 MLO-1 PTO-1 BIG PUSH 12-1 12.00-1 21.60-1 MLO-5 PTO-4 GRAEMY 8-1 8.00-1 22.30-1 MLO-4 PTO-5 SIMPLY SPITEFUL 3-1 3.00-1 6.30-1 MLO-3 PTO-3 TOUCHING BEAUTY 9-5 1.80-1 3.50-1 MLO-2 PTO-2
Hollywood Park presented the Winter Stakes on Friday. Five runners competed in the $50,000 added purse which was for three years and older fillies and mares travelling six furlongs on the all weather track. Had Hollywood's morning line maker reverese the two most favored runners, he would have had the rank correctly predicted.
HORSE NAME1 MLO PRO-RATED2 PTO MLO RANK3 MLO RANK4 EMPRESSIVE LADY 6-1 5.08-1 11.80-1 MLO-5 PTO-5 FREE FLYING SOUL 3-1 2.47-1 1.10-1 MLO-2 PTO-1 GADGET QUEEN 5-1 4.21-1 10.00-1 MLO-4 PTO-4 MONA DE MOMMA 5-2 2.04-1 1.60-1 MLO-1 PTO-2 REBA IS TOPS 4-1 3.34-1 4.60-1 MLO-3 PTO-3
While the number of stakes races would normally give us a view of Delta Downs' morning linemaker's skill, we must remember that the line probably wasn't considering sub-freezing temperatures and a sloppy track for the Delta Jackpot card. The sextet of stakes action began with the $60,000 guaranteed Orlean Stakes for three year old fillies travelling seven furlongs on the dirt course. In the Orleans, the linemaker only predicted the rank of the two least favored runners.
HORSE NAME1 MLO PRO-RATED2 PTO MLO RANK3 MLO RANK4 CAPOTE ATTRACTION 20-1 15.88-1 25.10-1 MLO-7 PTO-7 DOUBLE ESPRESSO 9-2 3.42-1 3.10-1 MLO-3 PTO-3 EPIPHANYFORTIFFANY 10-1 7.84-1 13.50-1 MLO-6 PTO-6 FOOLS IN LOVE 7-2 2.62-1 3.00-1 MLO-1 PTO-2 HEAVENLY VISION 4-1 3.02-1 1.90-1 MLO-2 PTO-1 NASR BIBI 6-1 4.63-1 7.10-1 MLO-4 PTO-5 SPEIGHTSTOWN BELLE 8-1 6.23-1 5.50-1 MLO-5 PTO-4
The second event on the stakes program was the $125,000 guaranteed Treasure Chest Stakes for three year olds and upward fillies and mares travelling one mile on the dirt course. Delta's linemaker correctly identified the most favored and the four least-favored runners.
HORSE NAME1 MLO PRO-RATED2 PTO MLO RANK3 MLO RANK4 FOXY DANSEUR 4-1 3.77-1 4.50-1 MLO-2 PTO-4 MARTIN'S BAY 5-1 4.72-1 3.30-1 MLO-4 PTO-3 MAYHAW 9-2 4.24-1 2.80-1 MLO-3 PTO-2 RULING CLASS 15-1 14.26-1 39.80-1 MLO-8 PTO-8 SOUTHERN YANKEE 8-1 7.58-1 33.20-1 MLO-6 PTO-6 SWEETSOUTHERN DOLL 12-1 11.40-1 35.60-1 MLO-7 PTO-7 UNFORGOTTEN 3-1 2.81-1 1.60-1 MLO-1 PTO-1 ZARB'S BALLERINA 6-1 5.67-1 11.20-1 MLO-5 PTO-5
The next event on the stakes program was the $60,000 guaranteed Sam's Town Stakes for three year olds travelling seven furlongs on the dirt course. Once again the Delta linemaker is correctly predicting the least favored runners -- in this case the bottom three.
HORSE NAME1 MLO PRO-RATED2 PTO MLO RANK3 MLO RANK4 AND MUSIC CAME 6-1 5.73-1 9.70-1 MLO-5 PTO-6 CLASSY GENTLEMAN 9-2 4.29-1 6.20-1 MLO-3 PTO-4 DISCREET STREET 5-1 4.77-1 6.30-1 MLO-4 PTO-5 DUMAR 7-2 3.33-1 3.00-1 MLO-2 PTO-2 FOREST VOICES 20-1 19.2-1 55.40-1 MLO-T8 PTO-9 IDE MISS DIXIE 15-1 14.39-1 32.10-1 MLO-7 PTO-7 LOOKN MIGHTY FAST 3-1 2.85-1 3.10-1 MLO-1 PTO-3 PERTINENT 20-1 19.20-1 49.20-1 MLO-T8 PTO-8 SOUTHERN VINTAGE 10-1 9.58-1 2.40-1 MLO-6 PTO-1
The first graded stakes on the program was the $500,000 guaranteed the Grade 3 Delta Princess Stakes for two year old fillies travelling one mile on the dirt course. The linemaker has three excuses for a complete miss on the Delta Princess: inconsistent fillies, rapidly improving juveniles, and/or the track condition.
HORSE NAME1 MLO PRO-RATED2 PTO MLO RANK3 MLO RANK4 DELLA DIAMANTE 7-2 3.18-1 3.50-1 MLO-2 PTO-T2 BEST REWARD --
5-1 4.57-1 6.70-1 MLO-T3 PTO-5 DREWMAN PRINCE 5-1 4.57-1 36.00-1 MLO-T3 PTO-8 JOANIE'S CATCH 15-1 13.86-1 5.00-1 MLO-8 PTO-4 LELA 10-1 9.22-1 10.50-1 MLO-T6 PTO-6 QUIET TEMPER 8-1 7.36-1 3.50-1 MLO-5 PTO-T2 THE RUMOR's TRUE 3-1 2.72-1 19.00-1 MLO-1 PTO-7 TRUTH AND JUSTICE 10-1 9.22-1 2.20-1 MLO-T6 PTO-1
The next event on the stakes program was the $125,000 guaranteed Delta Mile Stakes for three year olds and upwards travelling one mile on the dirt course. The linemaker hinted that this would be a race in which each runner would be equally supported when he made the morning line co-favorites 9-2 (after scratches). At post time, all six runners went off between 7-2 and 5-1.
HORSE NAME1 MLO PRO-RATED2 PTO MLO RANK3 MLO RANK4 EZ DREAMER 6-1 3.90-1 3.50-1 MLO-4 PTO-2 HARLAN STREET 12-1 8.10-1 3.80-1 MLO-6 PTO-3 QUE PASO 8-1 5.30-1 4.70-1 MLO-5 PTO-6 SPOTSGONE 9-2 2.85-1 4.00-1 MLO-T1 PTO-4 STONEHOUSE 5-1 3.20-1 4.40-1 MLO-3 PTO-5 Z HUMOR 9-2 2.85-1 3.50-1 MLO-T1 PTO-1
The featured event was the $750,000 guaranteed Grade 3 Delta Jackpot Stakes for two year olds travelling one mile and one sixteenth on the dirt course. Linemakers are challenged in events like the Delta Jackpot with the large number of shippers.
HORSE NAME1 MLO PRO-RATED2 PTO MLO RANK3 MLO RANK4 BENCH THE JUDGE 12-1 12.56-1 58.00-1 MLO-T6 PTO-8 GALLANT GENT 2-1 2.13-1 4.20-1 MLO-1 PTO-2 GRAND SLAM ANDRE 6-1 6.30-1 15.40-1 MLO-4 PTO-6 LITIGATION RISK 12-1 12.56-1 7.00-1 MLO-T6 PTO-5 MY TIME TO STAR 8-1 8.39-1 6.50-1 MLO-5 PTO-4 OAK MOTTE 12-1 12.56-1 18.60-1 MLO-T6 PTO-7 RULE 5-2 2.65-1 1.00-1 MLO-2 PTO-1 UH OH BANGO 4-1 4.22-1 6.30-1 MLO-3 PTO-3
1. In our stakes race recaps, the horses will be listed in alphabetical order. The stakes winner's name will be underlined in this column.
2. Pro-rated morning line odds are the mathematically adjusted morning line adjusted to reflect scratched runners. The pro-rated morning line odds will total to 100% plus the pari-mutuel takeout percentage and one percentage point for each runner (the de facto industry standard). In the case either no scratches or no odds total imbalances, this column will be the MLO in decimal form. My source for each track's takeout percentage is Horseplayers Association of North America.
3. In the case of ties among rank of morning line odds, the rank notation will be MLO-T# where # will represent the ranked position.
4. In the case of ties among rank of post time odds, the rank notation will be PTO-T# where # will represent the ranked position.
(2010.10.20 -- sps)