STAKES RECAP: 2009.12.03
We will review the morning line makers' performance following each stakes race.
Aqueduct presented the Chan Balum Stakes on Thursday. Five runners competed in the $65,000 added purse which was for three year olds travelling six furlongs on the inner dirt track track. The morning line maker successfully book-ended the race by tabbing the least and most favored runners. His estimation of the final pricing my have been hampered by reluctance of line makers to predict post time odds at or near odds on.
HORSE NAME1 MLO PRO-RATED2 PTO MLO RANK3 MLO RANK4 AFRICAN KING 9-5 1.70-1 0.85-1 MLO-1 PTO-1 BIG PUSH 5-1 4.79-1 4.30-1 MLO-4 PTO-3 BROTHER KIETH 2-1 1.90-1 2.30-1 MLO-2 PTO-2 LOBO DEL NORTE 4-1 3.83-1 9.90-1 MLO-3 PTO-4 TOP SEED 8-1 7.69-1 10.8-1 MLO-5 PTO-5
Additionally, Hollywood Park presented the Starine Stakes on Thursday. Seven runners competed in the $50,000 added purse which was for three year old fillies and upwards travelling one mile on the turf track.
HORSE NAME1 MLO PRO-RATED2 PTO MLO RANK3 MLO RANK4 DEXTERA (GER) 12-1 11.24-1 8.30-1 MLO-6 PTO-5 DREAMALONG 9-2 4.18-1 5.00-1 MLO-4 PTO-3 HERMIONE'S MAGIC (GB) 7-2 3.24-1 6.20-1 MLO-3 PTO-4 MINUTE LIMIT (IRE) 5-2 2.29-1 1.40-1 MLO-1 PTO-1 SAUCEY EVENING 10-1 9.35-1 10.60-1 MLO-5 PTO-6 SPIRIT SEEKER 3-1 2.76-1 3.10-1 MLO-2 PTO-2 SUMMERS PEACE 20-1 18.77-1 20.00-1 MLO-7 PTO-7
Hollywoods's line maker would have had to switch two pairs in order to correctly rank the post time odds. However, he correctly spotted the two most-favored and the least-favored runner.
1. In our stakes race recaps, the horses will be listed in alphabetical order. The stakes winner's name will be underlined in this column.
2. Pro-rated morning line odds are the mathematically adjusted morning line adjusted to reflect scratched runners. The pro-rated morning line odds will total to 100% plus the pari-mutuel takeout percentage and one percentage point for each runner (the de facto industry standard). In the case either no scratches or no odds total imbalances, this column will be the MLO in decimal form. My source for each track's takeout percentage is Horseplayers Association of North America.
3. In the case of ties among rank of morning line odds, the rank notation will be MLO-T# where # will represent the ranked position.
4. In the case of ties among rank of post time odds, the rank notation will be PTO-T# where # will represent the ranked position.
(2009.10.20 -- sps)