STAKES RECAP: 2009.12.02
We will review the morning line makers' performance following each stakes race.
Aqueduct presented the Tate Stakes on Wednesday. Five runners competed in the $65,000 added purse which was for three year old fillies travelling six furlongs on the inner dirt track track. It should be noted that the morning line maker essentially predicted the correct order of post time odds rank, one through five.
HORSE NAME1 MLO PRO-RATED2 PTO MLO RANK3 MLO RANK4 BOLD UNION 2-1 1.32-1 1.00-1 MLO-1 PTO-1 BOODLES 7-2 2.49-1 2.55-1 MLO-2 PTO-2 NOISY FEET 10-1 7.52-1 8.00-1 MLO-T4 PTO-4 POWDER PRINCESS 4-1 2.87-1 3.35-1 MLO-3 PTO-3 THOROUGHLY HOLY 10-1 7.52-1 11.3-1 MLO-T4 PTO-5
Additionally, Woodbine presented the Sir Barton Stakes on Wednesday. Seven runners competed in the $125,000 guaranteed purse which was for three year olds and upwards travelling one and one sixteenth miles on an all weather track.
HORSE NAME1 MLO PRO-RATED2 PTO MLO RANK3 MLO RANK4 COSTALIVIN 10-1 10-1 18.65-1 MLO-7 PTO-7 DANCERS' BAJAN 6-1 6.00-1 9.20-1 MLO-4 PTO-4 GENIUS KINSHASA 8-1 8.00-1 8.50-1 MLO-T5 PTO-3 LADY'S FIRST CAT 8-1 8.00-1 17.40-1 MLO-T5 PTO-6 SANDY COVE 2-1 2.00-1 0.65-1 MLO-1 PTO-1 SOCIETY's CHAIRMAN 3-1 3.00-1 3.50-1 MLO-2 PTO-2 YUMMY WITH BUTTER 4-1 4.00-1 11.90-1 MLO-3 PTO-5
If Woodbine's line maker had switched his estimates of Genius Kinshasa, the eventual winner, and Yummy With Butter's odds, then he would have been spot on in ranking the runners. His estimation of the final pricing my have been hampered by reluctance of line makers to predict post time odds at or near odds on.
1. In our stakes race recaps, the horses will be listed in alphabetical order. The stakes winner's name will be underlined in this column.
2. Pro-rated morning line odds are the mathematically adjusted morning line adjusted to reflect scratched runners. The pro-rated morning line odds will total to 100% plus the pari-mutuel takeout percentage and one percentage point for each runner (the de facto industry standard). In the case either no scratches or no odds total imbalances, this column will be the MLO in decimal form. My source for each track's takeout percentage is Horseplayers Association of North America.
3. In the case of ties among rank of morning line odds, the rank notation will be MLO-T# where # will represent the ranked position.
4. In the case of ties among rank of post time odds, the rank notation will be PTO-T# where # will represent the ranked position.
(2010.10.20 -- sps)