POST TIME ODDS RECAP: Zia Park - 2009 MEET
Following the close of each meet, we will review the trends exhibits by the betting public in the form of post time odds.
We will look at results of the 331 thoroughbred races from the 2009 meet (September 12, 2009 - December 6, 2009).1
113 of the 336 thoroughbred post time favorites went onto win their races at a strike rate of 34%. By field size, the success of Zia Park post time favorites varied. The post time favorites in a 4-horse field won 67% of the time (2 for 3), while 50% of the post time favorites in 5-horse fields won (5 for 10). 22 of the 53 PT favorites won in 6-horse fields at a rate of 42%. Not surprisingly the crowd had less success with 7-horse fields than with 6-horse fields. In fields with seven runners, the crowds' favorite won 38% of the time (26 for 68). Among 8-horse fields, 25 of the 67 PT favorites won at a rate of 37%.
The betting collective saw declines in winning percentages in 9- and 10-horse fields. At Zia Park, the win percentage of post time favorites in 9-horse fields was 32% (15 for 47). 9 of 45 post time favs won in 10-horse fields (20%). 7 for 28 (25%) and 2 for 15 (13%), in 11- and 12-horse fields respectively. There were no 13+ horse fields at the Zia Park meet.
Post time favorites in allowance and stakes races won 27 of 77 races (35%). The crowd was less impressive with claiming races where their favorites won 47 of 151 events (31%). 39 of 108 maiden races were won by their post time favorites at a strike rate of 36%. The average field size of Zia Park' maiden races was approximately 8.7 runners per race this autumn while claiming and allowance/stakes races averaged near 8.1 and 7.4 runners per race. Counterintuitively, the betting collective at judge the favorites more correctly with the large field sizes.
To try and deconvolute field size from class, we looked at the win rate of post time favorites for each of the 3 major class groups for double-digit field sizes. 1 of 11 favorites won in 'large' allowance and stakes races (9%). 6 of 37 won in 'large' claiming events (16%). 11 of 40 maidens were won by PT favorites (28%). The variable of field size doesn't explain the patrons' success with maidens.
The betting public did less well with dirt-routes than dirt-sprints with respective strike rates of 33% and 38%.2 The Zia Park crowd is not adept it spotting winning mudders: 25% and 14% of the favorites won in wet-sprints and wet-routes respectively -- reasonable excuse is small sample size (i.e. few off tracks in the desert).
The Zia Park crowd handled juveniles better than older horses. Two-years produced only 38% winners from PT favorites, while older horses yielded 33%.
Situationally, the betting public will be expected to be less and less successful in identifying the winner as the post time odds increase. The table below shows the winning percentages of various post time odds ranges.
1/5 - 4/5 53 25 47% 1/1 - 9/5 158 53 34% 2/1 - 9/2 440 90 20% 5/1 - 9/1 419 55 13% 10/1 - 19/1 462 18 4% 20/1 - 49/1 365 8 2% 50/1 - 999/1 105 0 0%
There were no $100 bombs at Zia Park this year.
In the future, we will recap the wisdom of crowds by looking at the post time odds of other meets upon their conclusion.
1. While every effort has been made to insure the accuracy of the statistics provided above, the author assumes no risk on the reader's use of the information. As with all financial markets, past results do not guarantee future performance.
2. All dirt statistics will be exclusively for dry surfaces. Wet tracks will be accounted for seperately.
(2010.01.10 -- sps)