POST TIME ODDS RECAP: Remington Park - 2009 MEET
Following the close of each meet, we will review the trends exhibits by the betting public in the form of post time odds.
We will look at results of the 536 races from the 2009 meet (September 12, 2009 - December 6, 2009).1
181 of the 561 thoroughbred post time favorites went onto win their races at a strike rate of 32%. By field size, the success of Remington Park post time favorites varied. The post time favorites in a 4-horse field won 33% of the time (1 for 3), while 70% of the post time favorites in 5-horse fields won (7 for 10). 15 of the 29 PT favorites won in 6-horse fields at a rate of 52%. Not surprisingly the crowd had less success with 7-horse fields than with 6-horse fields. In fields with seven runners, the crowds' favorite won 31% of the time (18 for 59). Among 8-horse fields, 23 of the 77 PT favorites won at a rate of 30%.
The betting collective saw declines in winning percentages in 9- and 10-horse fields. At Remington Park, the win percentage of post time favorites in 9-horse fields was 35% (30 for 86). 30 of 102 post time favs won in 10-horse fields (29%). 21 for 75 (28%) and 36 for 120 (30%), in 11- and 12-horse fields respectively. There were no 13+ horse fields at the Remington Park meet.
Post time favorites in allowance and stakes races won 48 of 148 races (32%). The crowd was less impressive with claiming races where their favorites won 65 of 253 events (26%). 73 of 179 maiden races were won by their post time favorites at a strike rate of 41%. The average field size of Remington Park' maiden races was approximately 10.4 runners per race this autumn while claiming and allowance/stakes races averaged near 9.6 and 8.2 runners per race. Counterintuitively, the betting collective at judge the favorites more correctly with the large field sizes.
To try and deconvolute field size from class, we looked at the win rate of post time favorites for each of the 3 major class groups for double-digit field sizes. 11 of 40 favorites won in 'large' allowance and stakes races (28%). 62 of 244 won in 'large' claiming events (25%). 47 of 133 maidens were won by PT favorites (35%). The variable of field size doesn't explain the patrons' success with maidens.
The betting public did less well with dirt-routes than dirt-sprints with respective strike rates of 28% and 35%.2 As for turf races, the betting public did equally as well with routes than sprints with respective strike rates of 26% and 26%. The Remington Park crowd is adept it spotting winning mudders: 35% and 36% of the favorites won in wet-sprints and wet-routes respectively -- reasonable excuse is small sample size (i.e. few off tracks in the desert).
The Remington Park crowd handled juveniles better than older horses. Two-years produced only 39% winners from PT favorites, while older horses yielded 31%.
Situationally, the betting public will be expected to be less and less successful in identifying the winner as the post time odds increase. The table below shows the winning percentages of various post time odds ranges.
1/5 - 4/5 73 41 56% 1/1 - 9/5 239 73 31% 2/1 - 9/2 791 159 20% 5/1 - 9/1 839 87 10% 10/1 - 19/1 829 50 6% 20/1 - 49/1 816 20 2% 50/1 - 999/1 414 2 0%
The two $100 bombs at Remington Park this year were contestants of races on fast dirt courses in fields of 9 or more runners. There appears to be no other commonality between the bombs.
In the future, we will recap the wisdom of crowds by looking at the post time odds of other meets upon their conclusion.
1. While every effort has been made to insure the accuracy of the statistics provided above, the author assumes no risk on the reader's use of the information. As with all financial markets, past results do not guarantee future performance.
2. All dirt statistics will be exclusively for dry surfaces. Wet tracks will be accounted for seperately.
(2010.01.09 -- sps)