POST TIME ODDS RECAP: MEADOWLANDS - 2009 MEET
Following the close of each meet, we will review the trends exhibits by the betting public in the form of post time odds.
We will look at results of the 213 thoroughbred races from the 2009 meet (October 1, 2009 - December 5, 2009).1
128 of the 374 post time favorites went onto win their races at a strike rate of 34%. By field size, the success of Meadowlands post time favorites varied. The post time favorites in a 4-horse field won 67% of the time (8 for 12), while a third of the 39 post time favorites in 5-horse fields won (13 for 39). 27 of the 92 PT favorites won in 6-horse fields at a rate of 29%. Surprisingly the crowd had more success with 7-horse fields than with 6-horse fields. In fields with seven runners, the crowds' favorite won 39% of the time (32 for 83). Among 8-horse fields, 20 of the 56 PT favorites won at a rate of 36%.
The betting collective saw declines in winning percentages in 9- and 10-horse fields. At Meadowlands, the win percentage of post time favorites in 9-horse fields was 26% (11 for 43). 7 of 25 post time favs won in 10-horse fields (28%). 6 for 13 and 4 for 11, in 11- and 12-horse fields respectively. There were no 13+ horse fields at the Meadowlands meet. One would not have expected the crowds success to increase after field size reached 11. A typical graphic resembles a line with decreasing slope and not a parabloa..
Post time favorites in allowance and stakes races won 30 of 95 races (32%). The crowd was equally impressive with claiming races where their favorites won 59 of 180 events (33%). 39 of 99 maiden races were won by their post time favorites at a strike rate of 39%. The average field size of Meadowlands' maiden races was approximately 7.5 runners per race this autumn while claiming, allowance, and stakes races averaged near 7.2 runners per race. Counterintuitively, the betting collective at judge the favorites more correctly with the large field sizes.
To try and deconvolute field size from class, we looked at the win rate of post time favorites for each of the 3 major class groups for double-digit field sizes. 2 of 11 favorites won in 'large' allowance and stakes races (18%). 10 of 20 won in 'large' claiming events (50%). 5 of 18 maidens were won by PT favorites (28%). The variable of field size doesn't explain the patrons' success with maidens.
The betting public did less well with dirt-sprints than dirt-routes with respective strike rates of 30% and 34%.2 Success of favorites in turf routes was in between at 32%. Small sample sizes were seen with turf-sprints (1 of 8). The Meadowlands crowd is very adept it spotting winning mudders: 40% and 46% of the favorites won in wet-sprints and wet-routes respectively.
Let's see if we can explain the crowds success with maidens as a function of track condition. 7 of 14 favorites won on wet-sprint allowance/stakes races. 5 of 14 favorites won on wet-route allowance/stakes races. 8 of 23 favorites won on wet-sprint claiming races. 9 of 19 favorites won on wet-route claiming races. 8 of 21 favorites won on wet-sprint maiden races. 4 of 6 favorites won on wet-route maiden races. The track condition doesn't explain why the crowd fared better with maidens in general than the other classes.
The Meadowlands crowd handled juveniles equally as well as older horses. Two-years produced only 33% winners from PT favorites, while older horses yielded 34%.
Situationally, the betting public will be expected to be less and less successful in identifying the winner as the post time odds increase. The table below shows the winning percentages of various post time odds ranges.
1/5 - 4/5 80 38 48% 1/1 - 9/5 216 69 32% 2/1 - 9/2 614 123 20% 5/1 - 9/1 473 63 13% 10/1 - 19/1 473 28 6% 20/1 - 49/1 374 5 1% 50/1 - 999/1 156 1 1%
In the future, we will recap the wisdom of crowds by looking at the post time odds of other meets upon their conclusion.
1. While every effort has been made to insure the accuracy of the statistics provided above, the author assumes no risk on the reader's use of the information. As with all financial markets, past results do not guarantee future performance.
2. All dirt statistics will be exclusively for dry surfaces. Wet tracks will be accounted for seperately.
(2009.12.12 -- sps)